Market Bullseye 08 December 2025 - In Pursuit of the Market’s Edge

WEEKLY NOTE: The VN-Index extended its winning streak to a fourth consecutive week with a 2.98% gain, marking its strongest weekly performance since early October. Our RS Rating framework highlights Retail, Real Estate, and Travel & Leisure as the three sectors demonstrating clear short-term leadership in price strength. Foreign investors unexpectedly reversed course with a sharp VND 4.5 trillion net buy—driven primarily by a large negotiated trade in VPL—while proprietary desks remained cautious, posting only a modest VND 59 billion net buy.

Looking ahead to next week, investors should proactively reduce equity exposure to around 50–60% of their portfolios to safeguard recent gains amid increasingly tense liquidity conditions in the money market. If the 1,700-point threshold is breached, an additional 10–20% de-risking should be considered. Any use of leverage at this stage must be accompanied by disciplined take-profit and stop-loss triggers.

I. Macroeconomic Overview:

Figure 1: Key indicators in the money market.

Interbank overnight rates surged further last week, climbing to 6.88%—the highest level since mid-2023. On the open market, the SBV injected an additional VND 35,317 billion to ease liquidity conditions, while simultaneously raising the OMO rate to 4.5%, effectively marking the upper boundary of the current monetary-easing cycle. The central reference rate edged down to 25,151 VND/USD, whereas the free-market rate continued its sharp retreat to around 27,250 VND/USD. EUR and GBP both appreciated by 150–300 VND depending on the bank, while JPY and CNY remained broadly stable.

Interbank liquidity has now entered its second consecutive week of stress, despite the SBV’s net injection approaching VND 110,000 billion. In reality, capital-disbursement pressure and corporate debt-service obligations in December are proving substantial, with VND 45,000 billion in bonds maturing and an additional VND 7,600 billion in interest payments due from non-bank entities alone—representing increases of 300% and 33% compared with the previous month, respectively.

Figure 2: Countries with the largest number of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) worldwide. Source: UNCTAD 2022.

In recent years, the Government has shown a strong commitment to developing regulatory frameworks and piloting free trade zones (FTZs). The national objective is to establish 8–10 internationally compliant FTZs by 2045 in strategically advantageous localities, capable of competing with global SEZs and contributing an estimated 15–20% of GDP. Notably, the Government has proposed piloting an FTZ in Ho Chi Minh City under an integrated model comprising a bonded zone, industrial production, logistics, commercial services, and financial activities, with implementation expected to begin in 2026. The HCMC People’s Committee will also be granted extensive autonomy in establishing and expanding the zone. Enterprises operating within the FTZ will enjoy a broad suite of incentives, including a 20-year corporate income tax rate of 10%, a 4-year tax holiday, and a 50% reduction for an additional 9 years. Firms will also be allowed to list, price, and settle transactions in foreign currencies outside conventional foreign-exchange controls. High-quality human resources will be eligible for a 50% personal income tax reduction for 10 years, while non-residential projects may be allocated or leased land without the need for auctions. In practice, several countries in the region—such as China, the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia—have developed a large number of SEZs with varying degrees of success. As a late mover, Vietnam benefits from being able to study mature international models, but also faces significant pressure to design a framework that is sufficiently attractive and truly differentiated to emerge as a new regional investment hotspot.

Story of the Week:

Over the past week, the Vietnamese stock market witnessed an impressive return of foreign capital to the HOSE after months of relentless multi-trillion-dong net selling. In fact, throughout November, although foreign investors still recorded sizable net outflows overall, they had quietly begun to “pivot,” accumulating hundreds of billions of dong across a number of stocks. Notably, in 20 trading sessions during the month, nine stocks saw net buying of over VND 200 billion, with five of them being net bought in more than 70% of sessions. The three standouts were HPG (VND 1,729 billion), VNM (VND 1,600 billion), and FPT (VND 1,396 billion)—all of which delivered solid Q3 2025 results.

For HPG, the company posted Q3 2025 revenue of VND 36,794 billion and net profit of VND 4,012 billion, up 7% and 33% YoY, respectively. Over the first nine months, Hòa Phát completed 65% of its revenue target and 78% of its full-year earnings plan. The commissioning of the Dung Quất 2 integrated steel complex boosted crude steel output significantly—2.8 million tonnes in Q3 and 7.9 million tonnes year-to-date. Steel remains the group’s “backbone,” contributing over 90% of revenue and profit. Going forward, HPG is expanding into high-quality steel and developing its rail and structural steel plant at Dung Quất, expected to deliver products from 2027.

For VNM, the company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with consolidated revenue of VND 16,968 billion (+9.1% YoY). Both domestic and overseas markets improved, with foreign revenue surging 32.6%, now accounting for more than 20% of quarterly sales. Net profit rose 4.5% to VND 2,511 billion, lifting 9M earnings to VND 6,586 billion thanks to margin expansion and well-managed selling expenses. Notably, after four consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth, VNM officially returned to positive profit growth in Q3 2025, signaling the early stages of a stronger recovery following its brand repositioning.

For FPT, the company recorded VND 49,887 billion in revenue and VND 6,867 billion in net profit over the first nine months—up 10.3% and 19.2% YoY. The Technology segment continued to lead, contributing 62% of total revenue, with Japan growing 26.3% and digital transformation revenue rising 19%. Despite a downward revision of global IT spending forecasts, FPT maintains strong competitive positioning thanks to its large talent pool, cost efficiency, and capability to deliver large-scale projects. Particularly impressive, newly signed contracts in the first ten months increased 22% YoY, supporting a 15–20% medium-term growth outlook.

Overall, it is evident that foreign capital is showing a clear preference for non-financial stocks with earnings rooted in core business operations, backed by tangible growth drivers and high earnings visibility. In reality, the number of VN30 stocks that fit this profile is limited, making their emergence as the next focal point of foreign inflows only a matter of time.

Figure 3: Foreign investors’ net buying activity on the HOSE over 20 trading sessions in November 2025. Source: compiled from the RS Rating system.

II. Market Developments:

The VN-Index logged its fourth consecutive weekly gain, rising 2.98% to 1,741.32 points—marking the second time it has successfully reclaimed the 1,700-point threshold. The VN30 Index continued to lag the broader market, adding only 2.68% to close at 1,975.5 points. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index inched up 0.28% to 260.65 after two straight weeks of decline, and the UPCoM-Index gained 1.27% to 120.49 points. Average matched order liquidity on the HOSE reached VND 20.1 trillion, up 7.82% from the previous week. Foreign investors unexpectedly reversed course with a net purchase of VND 4.58 trillion after multiple weeks of persistent selling, while proprietary traders remained cautious, recording only a modest VND 59 billion in net buying. Notably, nearly VND 3.4 trillion of the foreign inflow came from a single negotiated trade in VPL, with both the buyer and seller still undisclosed. Overall, the market’s ability to break through and hold above 1,700 points is an upside surprise, especially given weeks of subdued liquidity and persistent turbulence in the monetary landscape. Mid-week sessions showed signs of convincing broadening when the Banking sector briefly resumed its leadership role. For most of the time, however, the Vingroup trio continued to dictate market movements. The VN-Index is now approaching the 1,794.58-point peak set in mid-October, with the 1,750–1,760 range acting as a critical resistance band. Given the sharp deterioration in liquidity relative to October, retesting this high will be far from easy. Investors should also temper expectations for foreign inflows, as the bulk of the buying originated from a single block trade.

In terms of index contribution, VIC remained the dominant driver with a hefty +15.52-point impact, followed by VHM (+4.01), VPL (+3.96), MBB (+3.54), and CTG (+3.17). On the negative side, the names weighing on the market included BSR (-0.35), LPB (-0.34), GEX (-0.32), GMD (-0.29), and TCX (-0.27). The contribution from gainers continues to significantly outweigh that of decliners. From a valuation perspective, the market P/E rose to 15.3x—about 0.8x above the five-year average—suggesting valuations remain broadly reasonable relative to current earnings fundamentals. Fourth-quarter earnings will be the decisive catalyst determining whether the market can sustain its attractiveness as it heads into 2026.

Figure 4: Market valuation based on P/E, tracked using AWMFUND’s proprietary tool.

III. Investment Perspective and Strategy from AWMFUND:

Our analytical framework identifies three sectors currently leading the short-term momentum cycle: Retail, Real Estate, and Travel & Leisure. Notably, Real Estate and Travel & Leisure have remained in the leadership group for the second consecutive week, while Retail—having just re-entered the leadership basket—swiftly climbed to the top. Representative outperformers include FRT, PET, and MWG in Retail; PIV, VIC, TAL, and VCR in Real Estate; and VPL, DNT, and BSG in Travel & Leisure.

Figure 5: Sector strength map based on RS Rating, AWMFUND’s proprietary tool.

Smart money flows last week were concentrated in two stocks: GAS (Utilities & Petroleum) and CTD (Construction & Materials). However, conviction in CTD appears relatively weak, as buying interest was driven mainly by institutional investors. Meanwhile, no investor group recorded net purchases exceeding VND 100 billion in GAS. Overall, despite a more convincing breadth in the market’s upward momentum, professional capital continues to display a notable degree of caution—largely unchanged from the previous week.

Figure 6: Smart money flow map for individual stocks from RS Rating, AWMFUND’s proprietary tool.

Strategic Recommendations:

The macro picture in the first week of December paints a challenging scenario, as overnight interbank rates surged to their highest level in over two years. This prompted the SBV to inject nearly VND 110,000 billion in net liquidity within two weeks and deploy foreign exchange swap tools to supplement short-term VND supply through USD-collateralized lending. The OMO rate was raised by 50 basis points to 4.5%, formally marking the ceiling of the current monetary easing cycle. Meanwhile, public investment disbursement reached only around 60% of the annual plan after 11 months, making full-year targets nearly unattainable. Compounding this, complex natural disasters are expected to slow GDP growth in affected regions by roughly 1% in Q4, reducing overall national growth by about 0.1 percentage points. In this context, maintaining moderately stable interest rates in the medium term will be critical for investor sentiment and the real contribution of monetary policy to the upcoming growth phase. Exchange rate pressure is also likely to ease, with the Fed widely expected to implement a 25 bps cut in its December meeting, a probability approaching 90% according to CME FedWatch.

Regarding the stock market, last week’s gains cannot yet be considered sustainable, as the Vingroup group continues to dominate the index despite broader market breadth improving somewhat, while liquidity has yet to show a commensurate recovery. The market is approaching the mid-October peak, with the 1,750–1,760 level serving as a significant resistance zone. Regaining this area will be challenging for two reasons: (i) current liquidity levels remain substantially lower than in October, theoretically anchoring market equilibrium at lower price levels; and (ii) interbank rate developments remain unfavorable, dampening the strength of short-term capital—a crucial driver for equities. In a positive scenario, the market would need to hold the 1,700 level for 1–2 weeks to build sufficient momentum toward the 1,800 mark by year-end.

For the week ahead, investors are advised to proactively reduce equity exposure to 50–60% in light of mounting signals of stress in the money market. Should the 1,700 level be breached, a further reduction of 10–20% may be warranted. Positions that are retained should focus on companies likely to report truly outstanding Q4/2025 results and continue to benefit clearly from macro-driven narratives as the market transitions into 2026.

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Disclaimer: This report and its content are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investors should make decisions based on independent advice and their own financial situation. All views expressed may change without prior notice. Please credit the source when using information from this report.

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