Market Bullseye 24 November 2025 - Tug-of-War at the Highpoint

WEEKLY NOTE:  After a convincingly constructive rebound in the previous week, the VN-Index continued its upward trajectory with a modest gain of 1.19%. The RS Rating tool indicates that the Insurance and Real Estate sectors are exhibiting leading momentum, although their performance remains relatively subdued in absolute terms. Foreign investors maintained a net selling position of approximately VND 2 trillion, while proprietary trading desks remained largely neutral, registering only a slight net buy of VND 21 billion.

In the coming week, investors may consider maintaining an equity allocation of around 70% during the early sessions, and potentially increase exposure by an additional 10–20% to accumulate positions for a new upward leg—provided the market avoids sharp volatility and shows a meaningful improvement in liquidity. Conversely, if the 1,620-point threshold is breached once again, investors should proactively reduce their equity weight to the 40–50% range and prioritize closing positions in stocks with high market sensitivity.

I. Macroeconomic Overview:

Figure 1: Key indicators in the money market.

Interbank overnight rates declined sharply over the past week to below 5%, ending the week at 4.18%. In the open market channel, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) conducted a net withdrawal of VND 28,511 billion, ending nearly a month of consecutive net injections. The central reference exchange rate edged up slightly to 25,136 VND/USD, while the free-market exchange rate broke an eight-week upward streak, easing back to 27,800 VND/USD. Major foreign currencies including EUR, USD, CNY, and JPY also recorded mild declines.

The recent upward trend in deposit rates at joint-stock commercial banks has had a clear impact on system liquidity, sharply reducing demand in the interbank market. The SBV has maintained a cautious stance in its open market operations, immediately conducting net withdrawals once overnight rates fell below the 5% threshold. A key variable for the exchange rate this week is the significant decline in expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, following October labor market data that came in stronger than anticipated.

Figure 2: Value of net short positions recorded on the balance sheets of U.S. securities brokerage firms. Source: St. Louis FED (2025).

Recently, Decision No. 3761/QĐ-BTC was issued to implement the Scheme for Upgrading Vietnam’s stock market classification, which includes a roadmap for allowing securities borrowing–lending and controlled short selling. In practice, short selling delivers multiple benefits to markets with strong and effective regulatory frameworks. First, this activity increases liquidity and broadens the diversity of investment instruments. In the U.S., the scale of short positions held on brokers’ balance sheets has continuously expanded since 2010, reaching USD 806 billion in Q2/2025. Compared with the average trading liquidity of 2024, this figure is equivalent to roughly one full week of total market turnover. Second, research by MFA (2024) indicates that short selling helps reduce overall market volatility by allowing supply–demand imbalances to be priced in more rapidly. Third, short selling improves the efficiency of corporate valuation by reducing the structural bias towards bullish sentiment, as bearish market participants are given the ability to take active positions. However, Vietnam’s current market structure—where retail investors dominate overwhelmingly—differs significantly from developed markets. This makes it more challenging to manage reactions to market rumors and highlights the absence of professional leverage and risk-governance mechanisms. From a corporate perspective, securities firms will clearly benefit from increased liquidity, which translates into higher brokerage fee income, along with new profit opportunities from securities lending. Advantages will accrue to firms with large proprietary portfolios and sizable client assets under management, enabling them to operate securities lending brokerage services once legal frameworks are in place. At that point, these off-balance-sheet items could become a substantial competitive differentiator.

Story of the Week:

After completing three quarters of 2025, GDP growth of 7.85%—despite strong global headwinds—demonstrates Vietnam’s increasing adaptability as the economy becomes more deeply integrated into global value chains. Among the three key growth pillars—investment, trade, and consumption—external trade is on track to reach its full-year target ahead of schedule, with total import–export turnover in the first nine months reaching USD 680 billion, up 17.3% year-on-year and far exceeding the initial 12% target. Public investment disbursement, despite reaching only around 50% of the annual plan, has increased by VND 132.5 trillion in absolute terms compared with the same period last year. Historically, annual disbursement rates have typically hovered around 70% of plan; therefore, current progress cannot be viewed as sluggish—especially given that this year’s capital budget amounts to VND 1.1 quadrillion in total. The pillar showing the clearest signs of stagnation is consumption. Total retail sales of goods and services in the first nine months grew only 9.5%, while CPI increased around 3.3%. This is notable because, under stable conditions, consumption growth often approximates GDP plus CPI and may exceed that benchmark by 1–2%, implying a reasonable level of 12–13% at present. More importantly, this weakness has persisted since 2024, suggesting that domestic consumption has yet to assume its expected leadership role. In the long term, the objective of public investment is to stimulate production and business activities, thereby increasing household incomes through employment, wages, and corporate profitability. This forms the foundation for stronger consumption and reinvestment while helping rebalance the fiscal budget through higher tax revenue driven by economic expansion—particularly significant given that household consumption currently contributes up to 64% of GDP growth (Vietnamnet 2025). If multiplier effects fail to materialize over time, it would result in inefficient capital allocation and potentially create structural economic bottlenecks beyond the reach of both fiscal and monetary policy.

As public investment disbursement settles into a steady tempo, boosting domestic consumption is likely to become the focal point of growth-supporting policy initiatives. According to World Data Lab (2023), Vietnam is projected to become the world’s 11th-largest consumer market by 2030, with over 80 million consumers—an increase of 34% compared with 2024—ranking fourth in growth rate among the top 20 markets. Once consumption reaccelerates, its impact on the economy could exceed that of public investment. Producers of food and FMCG products are likely to observe the early demand pickup, but the largest beneficiaries will be durable and luxury consumer segments, which exhibit high income elasticity. Within this group, the electronics and jewelry sectors are expected to benefit significantly, particularly as household income rises and personal income tax adjustments come into effect at the beginning of next year. Among listed companies, PSD stands out in electronics distribution due to its attractive valuation and clear growth outlook. In jewelry, PNJ remains a strong candidate with brand advantages, reasonable valuation, and potential upside from changes in the gold market that help resolve raw material constraints. Investors may consider accumulating these two stocks at valuation levels suitable for their risk appetite and investment objectives.

Figure 3: Relationship between GDP growth, CPI, and total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue, 2014–2024. Source: General Statistics Office (2025).

II. Market Developments:

After a strong rebound in the previous week, the market continued to perform positively as the VN-Index advanced 1.19% to 1,654.93 points. The VN30 remained the primary driver, outperforming with a 1.51% gain to 1,899.89 points. In contrast, the HNX-Index and UPCoM-Index declined 1.67% and 1.17%, settling at 263.13 and 118.69 points, respectively. Average matched trading value on HOSE inched up to VND 18.9 trillion, an increase of 0.89% WoW, with two sessions exceeding the VND 20 trillion mark. After several weeks of sharp declines, liquidity appears to have found a bottom—an encouraging signal supporting the current recovery. Foreign investors continued to post net outflows of VND 2.07 trillion, similar to last week. However, over the past month, selling pressure has eased substantially from VND 4,000–5,000 billion per week to around VND 2,000 billion, with notable net buying re-emerging in several large-cap stocks. Meanwhile, proprietary desks maintained a neutral stance, recording modest net buying of VND 21 billion. Overall, this week’s market movement aligns with widely discussed scenarios in the media and can be considered relatively constructive. Profit-taking pressure from short-term bottom-fishing positions has been absorbed reasonably well, suggesting that current valuation levels are attractive enough to draw capital back into the market. That said, liquidity remains limited, indicating that supply from short-term positions may not have fully cleared, and the 1,670–1,680 zone remains a critical resistance area. Moreover, with a lack of strong supporting catalysts in the current environment, a prolonged period of tight, indecisive range-bound trading is still likely.

In terms of point contribution, VIC continued to lead with +16.62 points, followed by VHM (+5.04), VJC (+2.54), STB (+1.41), and VPB (+1.39). On the downside, the key detractors included VCB (-1.86), TCB (-1.34), VNM (-1.33), BID (-1.17), and LPB (-0.89). From a valuation perspective, the market P/E edged up to 14.65x—roughly in line with the five-year average—indicating that current valuations remain reasonable. However, it is worth noting that the Banking sector—typically an essential engine for most market upswings—has yet to stabilize, while the recent rebound has been driven disproportionately by VIC and VHM. This highlights that market breadth has not yet broadened meaningfully.

Figure 4: Market valuation based on P/E, tracked using AWMFUND’s proprietary tool.

III. Investment Perspective and Strategy from AWMFUND:

Our analytical framework identifies two sectors currently acting as short-term market leaders: Insurance and Real Estate. Notably, the Insurance sector has remained in the leadership group for the third consecutive week and continues to hold the front position. Representative names include PVI, PTI, and PRE (Insurance), as well as PIV, LGL, and NVL (Real Estate). However, given the increasingly severe natural disaster conditions in the Central provinces, investors should exercise caution with non-life insurance stocks, as fourth-quarter 2025 earnings could face significant downside pressures.

Figure 5: Sector strength map based on RS Rating, AWMFUND’s proprietary tool.

Smart money flows last week were concentrated in two stocks: SCR (Real Estate) and VPB (Banking). However, proprietary trading activity remained relatively muted in both. The limited alignment among the three key investor groups, combined with the cautious stance of proprietary desks, indicates that the market is still in an exploratory phase and that the upward trend has yet to be fully confirmed.

Figure 6: Smart money flow map for individual stocks from RS Rating, AWMFUND’s proprietary tool.

Strategic Recommendations:

Movements in the interbank overnight rate last week indicate that liquidity pressures have eased meaningfully, following a series of deposit rate increases implemented by multiple joint-stock commercial banks in recent weeks. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continues to maintain a consistently cautious policy stance in the open market, swiftly reversing to a sizable net withdrawal as overnight rates dropped. In the near term, the key policy priority is to ensure that the new interest-rate environment remains stable for a sufficiently long period to support sustainable growth while reinforcing confidence among consumers and investors. Numerous academic studies have affirmed that the stability of interest rates is often more important than the absolute level itself. In the U.S. market, expectations of another rate cut by FED in December have become more uncertain after the October employment data exceeded market forecasts, while FOMC members remain sharply divided in their views. This development may slow the pace of VND exchange-rate stabilization relative to earlier expectations. On the positive side, however, it also signals that the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate solid momentum—a favorable backdrop for Vietnam, given the U.S. remains our largest export market.

On the equity market, the VN-Index delivered a balanced trading week, broadly in line with consensus forecasts from major research institutions. The market is still in a phase lacking strong macro or sector-specific catalysts, and no single industry group has definitively assumed a leadership role. Notably, the recent recovery has been largely technical in nature and heavily reliant on VIC and VHM, whereas many other stocks continue to trade near short-term lows—an element that could potentially attract incremental capital back into the market. In upcoming sessions, if liquidity and breadth fail to improve meaningfully, investors should factor in the possibility that the current corrective phase has not yet concluded. Conversely, if the VN-Index successfully absorbs selling pressure in the 1,670–1,680 zone with improving liquidity, investors may gain more confidence in accumulating positions ahead of a potential December upswing.

In line with last week’s strategy, investors should continue to maintain stock exposure at roughly 70% during the early part of the week. Should the market avoid a sharp pullback and demonstrate clear improvement in liquidity, portfolio exposure may be increased by 10–20%, depending on individual risk tolerance. Conversely, if the 1,620 support level is breached, investors should reduce exposure to 40–50% and prioritize trimming positions in high-beta names. A moderate use of leverage may also be considered while the VN-Index trades within the 1,650 ± 20 range.

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Disclaimer: This report and its content are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investors should make decisions based on independent advice and their own financial situation. All views expressed may change without prior notice. Please credit the source when using information from this report.

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