Market Bullseye 17 November 2025 - Searching for Momentum
- Chau Hai Nguyen
- 17 thg 11
- 9 phút đọc
WEEKLY NOTE: The VN-Index delivered a notably constructive rebound this week after testing the 1,580 level, finishing up 2.27%. Our RS Rating tool shows that Insurance, Telecommunications, and Information Technology remain the leading sectors, while several other groups also demonstrated meaningful improvements in price strength. Foreign investors continued to register roughly VND 2,000 billion in net selling, whereas proprietary trading desks reversed course and turned net buyers by over VND 1,000 billion.
Looking ahead to next week, investors should closely monitor the market during the first few sessions. If the VN-Index can hold above the 1,600 threshold, equity exposure may be gradually raised to around 70% of the portfolio. Conversely, if a deeper pullback emerges, investors should maintain equity allocation at 40–50% as in the previous week, and consider deploying an additional 10–20% should the market retrace toward the sub-1,530 area, depending on individual risk appetite.
I. Macroeconomic Overview:
Overnight interbank rates edged down slightly from the previous week, settling at 5.4%. In the open market operations channel, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continued injecting liquidity with a net amount of VND 4,542 billion—its fourth consecutive week of net injections, albeit still conducted under a visibly cautious stance. The central reference exchange rate climbed further to 25,122 VND/USD, while the free-market rate reached as high as 27,900 VND/USD. Among major currencies, the EUR appreciated by roughly 300 VND, whereas movements in the GBP and JPY remained relatively modest.
The SBV’s approach of maintaining only modest net injections—despite overnight rates holding above 5%—signals a clear policy intention to anchor money-market rates around the 5% level. Consequently, listed deposit rates at joint-stock commercial banks are likely to be adjusted upward to at least 5–5.5% per annum for the 12-month tenor, compared with the roughly 4.5% range seen during the first half of 2025. This shift also implies that lending rates may rise by an additional 1.5–2%.
Global financial markets experienced a highly volatile start to November, with major indices posting broad-based declines. All three key U.S. equity benchmarks moved lower, led by the Nasdaq with a month-to-date loss of -3.47%. Asian markets with strong transmission channels to the U.S.—notably Japan and South Korea—also shed more than 2% in value. Bitcoin’s performance was even more negative: it at one point broke below the USD 95,000 threshold and ended the week down over 12%, effectively erasing nearly all year-to-date gains.
This turbulence was driven by a sequence of unfavourable developments. The U.S. government shutdown delayed the release of October inflation data, eroding expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in December. In the media, concerns about a burgeoning AI bubble intensified as debt-leveraged investment flows accelerated sharply. According to the New York Times (2025), the four largest technology firms—Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon—collectively spent USD 112 billion in capital expenditures in Q3 2025 alone on data centers and semiconductor infrastructure. Yet the pace of innovation in the semiconductor industry is extraordinarily rapid, raising the risk that these assets could become obsolete almost immediately upon completion. If the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory fails to materialize as expected, funding such high-risk investments with debt could pose significant financial consequences.
Even so, a constructive aspect remains: cautious viewpoints continue to exist across the market—an important factor that materially lowers the probability of a true bubble taking shape. Investors should maintain a defensive readiness; historically, markets become genuinely dangerous only when sentiment converges into a single dominant narrative and opposing voices fade—a defining hallmark of an actual bubble.
Story of the Week:
In the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam’s aquatic products exports showed positive signals, with total export value reaching approximately USD 8.1 billion, up 12.3% YoY, according to the General Statistics Office (2025). Two key export items continued to maintain strong growth: shrimp reached USD 3.4 billion (+20% YoY) and pangasius reached USD 1.6 billion (+10%). The China and Hong Kong markets overtook the U.S. to become the largest import regions, led primarily by the shrimp segment. Meanwhile, Japan and Europe continued to serve as stable pillars, with growth rates of 15.6% and 13.3%, respectively.
Facing U.S. tariff pressures, Vietnamese exporters accelerated market diversification, targeting regions such as Brazil (+54% YoY), ASEAN (+23%), and the Middle East (+7.6%), with exports in September alone rising over 50%. However, the short-term outlook has become less favorable, as VASEP (2025) forecasts a 22% decline in export value in 4Q2025 due to U.S. tariffs and anti-dumping duties. Evidently, exports to the U.S. fell over 6% in September, although they still rose 6.8% in the first nine months of the year. U.S. importers had aggressively stocked up immediately after tariff announcements and may have already accumulated sufficient inventory through early next year.. The wild-caught aquatic products sector faces even greater pressures. Vietnam has not yet had its EU IUU “yellow card” lifted and is at risk of U.S. import restrictions under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) due to non-equivalence recognition. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook is not entirely bleak. Vietnam retains a tariff advantage in the U.S. compared to other major exporters such as China, India, or Brazil, which face duties of up to 50%. Within Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s tariffs are broadly comparable, and upcoming trade negotiations could possibly open the door for exemptions on agricultural products either fully originating in Vietnam or using U.S.-imported inputs. For the seafood products segment, the Middle East market continues to show strong absorption, particularly for tuna.
A major concern for investors is the so-called “escaping the U.S.” strategy; however, this view may be somewhat misleading. The U.S. ranks only behind Hong Kong in per capita food expenditure, at USD 3,694, with a 45% increase over 2017–2023 (equivalent to 6.4% annually). It is one of the few markets combining both high purchasing power and robust growth, with a population of roughly 350 million—an advantage nearly impossible to replicate elsewhere. Recently, Vietnam exported 700 tons of tilapia to Brazil, which some investors see as a positive sign of market diversification efforts. Ironically, Brazil itself is one of the world’s largest tilapia producers and primarily exports to the U.S.; the country has struggled with domestic consumption under high U.S. tariffs. This illustrates that market diversification is far from simple: if U.S. imports decline, products from countries competing with Vietnam in the U.S. are likely to flood new markets, intensifying competition. Therefore, the key is not to “escape the U.S.” but to maximize this market as a foundation while sustainably expanding into other markets. In recent years, companies such as MPC and VHC have demonstrated systematic market approaches, effectively mitigating the risk of future anti-dumping duties.
II. Market Developments:
After reaching the 1,580-point mark at the start of the week, the VN-Index rebounded sharply, rising 2.27% to 1,635.46 points, temporarily reclaiming the 1,600-point level and maintaining solid gains through the final two sessions. The VN30 index advanced 2.57% to 1,871.54 points. The HNX-Index increased 2.88% to 267.61 points, while the UPCoM-Index extended its third consecutive week of gains with a 2.86% rise to 120.09 points. This marks a new high for the UPCoM-Index, surpassing its 2022 peak and moving toward the all-time high set in 2010 at 126.95 points. Average matched trading liquidity on HOSE continued to decline sharply, dropping 20.71% from the previous week to VND 18,731 billion, with no session surpassing VND 20,000 billion in trading value. Foreign investors remained net sellers at VND 2,332 billion, while proprietary trading returned to net buying of VND 1,279 billion. Against this backdrop, the VN-Index avoided a negative scenario, responding quite sensitively around the 1,580-point level and creating opportunities for high-leverage investors to restructure portfolios during the recent rebound. However, the sharp decline in liquidity combined with a rising interest rate environment causes the market to lack key factors to confirm a bottom. While the probability is low, the strong upward move last week could still be largely technical, as many stocks were deeply oversold. The return of capital flows remains a prerequisite for any new upward trend. Internationally, many major markets are also entering correction phases, while the VN-Index currently lacks distinctive drivers to move counter to the broader trend.
Regarding point contributions, VIC continued to be the market’s main driver with +10.13 points, followed by TCB (+3.41), VNM (+2.51), VHM (+2.13), and MWG (+1.65). On the downside, stocks weighing on the market included HVN (-0.77), CTG (-0.53), FPT (-0.27), VJC (-0.21), and SSB (-0.12). In terms of valuation, the market P/E currently stands at 14.47x, roughly in line with the five-year average, indicating that overall valuations remain relatively safe. Nevertheless, amid declining liquidity and rising capital costs, funds are expected to concentrate on stocks with attractive valuations and strong growth prospects, resulting in a highly selective market environment.
III. Investment Perspective and Strategy from AWMFUND:
Our analytical tools identified three sector leaders in the short-term horizon: Insurance, Telecommunications, and Information Technology. These three sectors led the market for a second consecutive week, although the ranking shifted, with Insurance overtaking Information Technology as the strongest leading sector. Key representative stocks include PVI, PTI, BVH (Insurance); PTP, VGI, PAI (Telecommunications); and VEC, SAM, SRB (Information Technology).
Last week, smart money flows concentrated on three stocks: KDH (Real Estate), NKG (Basic Materials), and HHV (Construction & Building Materials). However, for all three stocks, net buying from proprietary trading desks remained relatively muted. This indicates that smart money currently lacks strong consensus, and further observation is needed to identify the “convergence point” of capital in the upcoming trend.
Strategic Recommendations:
The State Bank of Vietnam’s continued cautious net liquidity injections, even as the overnight interbank rate remains above 5%, signal the regulator’s determination to establish a higher interest rate environment. Deposit rates are therefore likely to be adjusted upward to a minimum of 5–5.5% for 1-year terms, up from the historical low of approximately 4.5% earlier this year, which could in turn push lending rates up by an additional 1.5–2%. In the early quarters of the year, many banks proactively narrowed their NIMs to reduce lending rates in support of the economy; however, with increasing provisioning pressures, a recovery of NIMs appears inevitable. In practice, while the growth of non-performing loans (NPLs) has slowed, NPLs still increased 19.1% in the first nine months, outpacing credit growth of 15%, reflecting continued elevated risk within the financial system. If this trend persists, next year’s credit growth plans may need adjustment, potentially impacting broader growth targets. More concerningly, in a context where favorable interest rates prevailed from 2024 to date, weaker enterprises have yet to improve their financial position, implying that rising rates could exacerbate credit risks. Accordingly, NPL developments in Q4 require close monitoring.
On the equity market front, the VN-Index held above 1,580 points, providing room for highly leveraged investors to restructure portfolios and avoid forced sales. Nevertheless, given current liquidity conditions, it is difficult to confirm that the market has reached a bottom. Last week’s rebound may have been largely a technical response, as many stocks were deeply oversold. A positive signal is the return of net buying by proprietary trading desks, with net short positions in derivatives reduced to around 8,000 contracts. In a favorable scenario, the VN-Index could continue to fluctuate in the 1,620–1,650 range to accumulate buying pressure and improve trends once capital flows return strongly. Conversely, if the 1,600-point level is breached, the market could face a more negative scenario, potentially retreating below 1,550 points. Even in the case of a recovery, the index will encounter significant resistance approaching 1,670–1,680 points; therefore, an accumulation scenario remains more reasonable than expecting an early breakout.
For the coming week, investors should closely monitor the first few sessions. If the 1,600-point threshold holds, equity allocation can gradually be increased to around 70% of portfolios. If deep correction signals emerge, investors should maintain a 40–50% allocation as previously recommended and consider deploying an additional 10–20% when the VN-Index approaches the 1,520–1,530 range, depending on risk appetite. Leverage usage should remain limited until clear bottoming signals are confirmed.
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Disclaimer: This report and its content are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investors should make decisions based on independent advice and their own financial situation. All views expressed may change without prior notice. Please credit the source when using information from this report.
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