Market Bullseye 29 December 2025 - At the Peak, on the Edge
- Chau Hai Nguyen
- Dec 30, 2025
- 10 min read
WEEKLY NOTE: The VN-Index went through a highly volatile trading week, closing up 1.5% and at one point testing the 1,800 mark. Our RS Rating system continues to identify Oil & Gas, Retail, and Insurance as the leading sectors in terms of short-term price strength. Foreign investors maintained a strong net buying stance, with net inflows exceeding VND 1.6 trillion, while proprietary trading desks also stepped up aggressively, recording net purchases of over VND 3.0 trillion. Proprietary flows were concentrated on bottom-fishing during Friday’s session, when the market briefly slipped below the 1,700-point threshold.
Looking ahead to the coming week, investors are advised to maintain an equity allocation of 70–80%, depending on individual risk tolerance. Should the market break above 1,780 points, a gradual reduction of equity exposure to around 60% would be prudent to lock in performance. The use of leverage should be approached with caution and only considered while the index remains below the 1,750 level.
I. Macroeconomic Overview:
Interbank overnight rates rose sharply over the past week to 5.47%, with rates at the two-week and one-month tenors climbing above 8%. On the open market operations (OMO) channel, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) returned to a net liquidity injection of VND 6.13 trillion, largely aimed at maintaining the existing outstanding OMO balance rather than expanding liquidity support. The central exchange rate edged down slightly to VND 25,128/USD, reinforcing expectations that December will close with a broadly stable FX trend. In the foreign exchange market, GBP, EUR, and CNY appreciated after a period of consolidation, while the JPY moved against the trend and softened modestly.
Overall, money market liquidity is still in the process of gravitating toward equilibrium and may require several more weeks to fully stabilize. The elevated rates at certain tenors, coupled with a sudden surge in transaction volumes, warrant close monitoring. That said, viewed in aggregate, the impact is likely to remain localized, as the bulk of interbank trading value continues to be concentrated in the overnight tenor.
The global economy in general, and international trade in particular, has endured a year of pronounced turbulence as the United States welcomed a new—yet far from unfamiliar—president. If investors are hoping for a calmer environment in 2026, it is worth recalling that President Trump will remain in office until early 2029. According to expert commentary cited by Reuters (2025), the Trump administration is unlikely to introduce a large number of hard-line policy measures in the second year of its term, as the midterm elections approach and historical patterns suggest that the incumbent president’s party often loses momentum in Congress. That said, President Trump is operating with a relatively high degree of “freedom,” given the absence of pressure to campaign for another term. Consistent with his pragmatic mindset, he is therefore likely to remain firmly committed to policies regarded as part of his political “legacy” throughout his tenure. Among these, one message has been particularly clear and consistent: if you want to sell to Americans, produce in America. Tariffs are not only reshaping global trade flows but are also exerting a direct influence on the reallocation of FDI, especially in high-technology sectors. Empirically, FDI inflows into developing economies stalled in the first half of 2025, while FDI into North America increased by 5%, following a sharp 23% surge in 2024. Notably, outward FDI from the United States—the world’s largest source of FDI—fell from USD 112 billion to just over USD 50 billion in the first half of 2025 (OECD 2025). While the most intense psychological shock to financial markets may have passed following the U.S. tariff postponement announced in mid-April, the real storm confronting developing economies may only now be taking shape.
Story of the Week:
As 2025 gradually draws to a close, it leaves behind a palpable sense of euphoria among investors, with the VN-Index delivering a dream-like year-to-date return of approximately 37%. To conclude this emotionally charged year, we conducted a review of the top 10 best- and worst-performing stocks on the HOSE, restricted to companies with a minimum market capitalization of VND 3,000 billion. Beyond elements of surprise and the idiosyncratic influence of market makers, this group of stocks reveals several intriguing characteristics that may offer valuable reference points for investors in future stock selection.
Among the top 10 best-performing stocks, it is unsurprising to see market-disrupting names such as GEE (+710.3%), VIC (+664.5%), and TAL (+176.35%). Most companies in this group are closely associated with major private-sector ecosystems that can be regarded as key pillars of the Vietnamese economy, while also benefiting from Resolution 68 and the government’s policy orientation toward limiting the criminalization of economic relationships. Despite clear dispersion within the group, it is undeniable that the majority recorded strong EPS growth, with several cases exceeding 100%, including GEE, GEX, and notably VIX, whose earnings expanded sixfold year-on-year. Another noteworthy observation is that most of these stocks had a weak performance in 2024: eight out of ten posted negative returns, with GEE being the sole outperformer relative to the VN-Index that year. Many stocks in this cohort exhibited clear and, in hindsight, fairly straightforward valuation mispricings. In the case of GEE and GEX, both companies own high-quality assets which, at certain points, implied an intrinsic value well above their prevailing market capitalizations when assessed even through simple asset aggregation. Similarly, at the beginning of 2025, SHB was valued on par with TPB, EIB, MSB, SSB, and VIB at a market capitalization of VND 30,000–40,000 billion, despite having profit levels and asset size in 2024 comparable to banks in the VND 70,000–80,000 billion bracket such as LPB and STB; at one stage, SHB even traded at a P/E multiple of around 4.5x. These valuation discrepancies were not particularly difficult to identify, yet not all investors possessed sufficient conviction to act decisively on their own judgments.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the 10 worst-performing stocks were dominated by the technology–telecommunications and industrial park sectors. With the exception of NTC and VHC, EPS growth across this group was not especially remarkable, though still relatively resilient compared with the broader economic backdrop. Importantly, most of these stocks had delivered strong performance in 2024: all ten outperformed the VN-Index’s 11.94% gain, with eight posting returns above 20%, including several of the prior year’s “stars” such as VTP and FPT. It is evident that the tariff shock inflicted substantial damage on share prices within this group. More critically, after the shock dissipated, many companies failed to articulate sufficiently compelling growth narratives to propel their share prices back to previous levels. This leads to a fairly clear conclusion: stocks that significantly outperform in one year carry a high probability of disappointing in the following year. This is a point investors should pay close attention to when rebalancing portfolios toward 2026—a year expected to be shaped by a complex interplay of opportunities and challenges.
II. Market Developments:
The VN-Index experienced a week of significant volatility, closing the week up 1.5% at 1,729.8 points and briefly testing the historic 1,800-point level. The VN30 basket continued to lead the market, rising 1.69% to 1,965.97 points. In contrast, the HNX-Index underperformed, declining 1.35% to 250.33 points, extending its continuous downtrend since early September. The UPCoM-Index also showed weakness, slipping 0.11% to 119.28 points; notably, this index no longer reflects meaningful contributions from MCH shares following the stock’s transfer to the HOSE. Average matched trading value on HOSE reached VND 22,472 billion, up sharply 30.08% from the previous week. Friday’s session alone saw turnover exceed VND 27,000 billion—the highest in nearly two months. Foreign investors maintained strong net buying at VND 1,646 billion, while proprietary trading desks actively deployed capital, with net purchases totaling VND 3,010 billion. Overall, the market posted a solid weekly gain alongside improved liquidity, despite an unexpected event involving Vingroup stocks on Thursday. Strong bargain-hunting demand on Friday helped narrow the intraday decline from nearly 60 points to just 13 points, accompanied by the highest liquidity in almost two months. Proprietary trading also continued aggressive deployment, particularly during this session. Meanwhile, although foreign investors recorded net selling on Friday, this essentially reflected a temporary pause in net buying amid heightened short-term risks, with sales concentrated almost exclusively on the Vingroup group, accounting for nearly 90% of cumulative net selling. Thanks to the robust bargain-hunting on the final trading day, margin pressure remained at a safe level. With improved liquidity and clear alignment among smart money flows, the market has a solid base to maintain the 1,700-point level and may soon retest the 1,760–1,780-point range in the final week of the year, barring any unexpected events similar to the recent Vingroup incident.
Looking at point contributions, despite significant selling pressure in the last two sessions, the early-week gains propelled the Vingroup group to be the main market driver, led by VIC (+14.86 points) and VHM (+9.66), alongside STB (+3.85), GAS (+3.58), and GEE (+2.71). On the downside, stocks exerting the largest downward pressure included VCK (-1.29), LPB (-1.22), VNM (-1.14), GVR (-0.83), and VCB (-0.73), with impacts relatively minor compared to the contributions from advancing stocks. From a valuation perspective, the market P/E rose to 15.75x—approximately 1.25 points above the five-year average—but remains reasonable as the market anticipates a positive wave of Q4 earnings. Investors should exercise caution and temporarily avoid the Vingroup group, as Thursday’s abrupt reversal during the ATC session highlighted the fragility of investor holding sentiment in these stocks.
III. Investment Perspective and Strategy from AWMFUND:
Our analytical tools identified three sectors clearly leading on the short-term horizon: Oil & Gas, Retail, and Insurance. Among them, the Oil & Gas sector extended its leadership for a second consecutive week, while the Insurance sector made a surprisingly strong surge, gaining 20 points in a single session. Key stocks include PVB, BSR, PVS (Energy); AGX, MWG, PET (Retail); and MIG, PVI, BVH (Insurance).
Smart money flows last week continued to permeate seven stocks across various industries. Institutional and foreign investors remained the primary drivers, while proprietary trading notably stepped up their activity. In particular, there was a strong and consistent alignment of all three capital flows in VPB and VCG, highlighting clear consensus among market participants.
Strategic Recommendations:
Interbank interest rates reaching record levels on certain tenors indicate that the banking system’s funding pressure has not yet been fully resolved. However, the impact of these elevated rates is largely localized, as the majority of interbank turnover remains concentrated in overnight transactions. In the coming period, maintaining stability of overnight interbank rates around 5.5% will be a key operational priority. Simultaneously, a series of preliminary macroeconomic and social indicators will be released over the next few weeks. Investors should pay close attention to inflation metrics, consumer growth, and banking system deposit growth—variables that will play a critical role in guiding monetary policy alongside broader growth objectives. Additionally, Q4 earnings and preliminary full-year 2025 results from listed companies will gradually be disclosed. Investors should focus on analyzing Q4 financial statements rather than full-year reports, particularly for sectors heavily affected by export activity, such as Seafood, Textiles, Steel, and Transportation & Ports. This quarter represents the first period in which companies fully face the impact of U.S. tariffs without the support of pre-tariff stockpiling orders, providing a more accurate reflection of the real economic effect of the tariffs and each company’s adaptive capacity. Furthermore, two key developments from the U.S. are expected in early 2026: the official determination on anti-dumping duties for Vietnamese shrimp and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariff orders issued by President Trump. Investors should monitor these decisions closely and refrain from exposure to shrimp exporters, except for firms exempted from anti-dumping reviews.
In the equity market, although increased selling pressure near the 1,760–1,780 point range of the VN-Index had been previously highlighted, the sudden sharp decline caused by issues in Vingroup stocks was entirely unexpected. We view this as a localized event with no signs of broader contagion, as only 5 out of 119 HOSE-listed stocks with market capitalization over VND 5,000 billion fell more than 5% last week. Meanwhile, bottom-fishing flows reacted strongly as the index breached 1,700 points, with proprietary trading resuming aggressive buying after weeks of cautious positioning. Net short positions in the derivatives market gradually declined to around 7,500 contracts over the week, indicating limited hedging despite high market volatility. Given the clear improvement in liquidity last week and the strong consensus of net buying from both proprietary traders and foreign investors, the likelihood of the VN-Index falling below 1,700 points in the final three trading sessions of the year is low, barring unforeseen negative shocks similar to the Vingroup incident. In a positive scenario, the market is likely to close 2025 in the 1,750–1,780 point range. If professional institutions coordinate NAV-supporting activities and market sentiment remains favorable, a year-end close above 1,800 points is entirely plausible.
For the upcoming week, investors are advised to maintain an equity allocation of 70–80% of their portfolios. Should the market surpass 1,780 points, gradually reducing exposure to around 60% is recommended to preserve performance. Conversely, although unlikely, if the VN-Index unexpectedly drops below 1,700 points, equity exposure should be aggressively cut to 40–50%, preparing for a potential prolonged market weakness. Leverage should be used cautiously and only when the index remains below 1,750 points, and under no circumstances to catch falling stocks, as this involves risks beyond the financial domain.
===
Explore Additional Investment Opportunities with AWMFUND:
To gain deeper insights and fully capitalize on market opportunities, explore AWMFUND’s specialized services:
Periodic Investment Publications (https://www.awmfund.vn/publication): Curated investment portfolios with real-time quarterly recommendations.
RS Rating – Comprehensive Trading
(https://www.awmfund.vn/rs-rating-service): A trading system that identifies top-performing stocks with strong price momentum.
Investment Consulting Services
(https://www.awmfund.vn/investment-consulting): Leveraging proprietary tools and the full suite of AWMFUND investment publications.
Portfolio Management Services
(https://www.awmfund.vn/investment-trust): Designed for busy investors seeking professional portfolio oversight.
DNSE Securities Collaborators
(https://www.awmfund.vn/recruitment): Unlimited income opportunities for motivated contributors.
High Margin Deal Services
(https://www.awmfund.vn/high-margin): Access high-leverage margin trading opportunities.
AWMFUND is committed to partnering with you on your investment journey.
= = =
Disclaimer: This report and its content are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investors should make decisions based on independent advice and their own financial situation. All views expressed may change without prior notice. Please credit the source when using information from this report.
= = =
AWMFUND Research
𝐀𝐖𝐌 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝 - Big bet on Vietnam's Future.
𝐓𝐞𝐥: 𝟎𝟖𝟖𝟖.𝟖𝟖.𝟕𝟕.𝟖𝟗
𝐌𝐚𝐢𝐥: 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐨@𝐚𝐰𝐦𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝.𝐯𝐧
Comments