Market Bullseye 22 December 2025 - After the Storm
- Chau Hai Nguyen
- Dec 23, 2025
- 10 min read
WEEKLY NOTE: The VN-Index staged a solid and constructive rebound last week, gaining 3.49% and once again reclaiming the 1,700-point threshold. The RS Rating system indicates that the Oil & Gas and Real Estate sectors have re-emerged as short-term price strenght leaders. Foreign investors reversed course to post modest net buying of approximately VND 240 billion, while proprietary trading desks significantly scaled back their net purchases to less than half of the previous week’s level.
Looking ahead, investors may consider increasing equity exposure to around 70% of portfolio allocation. However, should the VN-Index advance rapidly toward the 1,750-point zone without a commensurate improvement in market liquidity, a proactive reduction of equity exposure to roughly 50% is advisable. The use of margin can be considered selectively within the 1,700 ± 20 point range.
I. Macroeconomic Overview:
Interbank overnight rates cooled sharply over the past week, falling from above 7% to 4.58%, marking the lowest weekly close since mid-November. On the open market operations (OMO) channel, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) reversed course and recorded a modest net withdrawal of VND 3,499 billion, following three consecutive weeks of net liquidity injections totaling more than VND 122,000 billion. The central exchange rate remained unchanged week-on-week at VND 25,148/USD, while the free-market exchange rate officially slipped below the VND 27,000/USD threshold. Meanwhile, major foreign currencies such as the EUR, GBP, and JPY showed no material movements compared with the previous week.
Overall, interbank liquidity conditions have eased noticeably after nearly a month of intense tightening. From now through the Lunar New Year, credit demand is expected to decline meaningfully, significantly reducing the likelihood of another severe liquidity squeeze. At the same time, exchange-rate dynamics are likely to tilt toward a sideways to mildly easing trend as remittance inflows enter their seasonal peak.
Recently, the National Assembly passed Resolution No. 254/2025/QH15, introducing a set of targeted mechanisms and policy measures aimed at resolving bottlenecks in the enforcement of the Law on Land, with several notable highlights. Most importantly, the resolution adds four new categories of land recovery, under which provincial People’s Councils are authorized to approve land acquisition once 75% of the project area and 75% of affected land users have reached compensation agreements. This provision is expected to unlock a significant number of stalled projects constrained by prolonged site clearance disputes, thereby mitigating risks of cost overruns and inefficient capital allocation. In addition, effective 1 January 2026, the new land price framework will be implemented nationwide and updated on an annual basis. This shift is likely to impose material cost pressures on manufacturing, logistics, warehousing, and industrial park operators—particularly those with a high proportion of land leased under annual payment schemes or those that have yet to complete land-use formalities prior to the enforcement of the revised pricing table. Conversely, residential real estate developers may benefit in the near term, as selling prices and demand receive support from heightened concerns over rising future land and housing ownership costs. That said, over the medium to long term, project development costs are set to increase structurally, exerting direct pressure on profit margins. Against this backdrop, developers that currently hold substantial volumes of completed inventory while maintaining sound balance sheets and prudent leverage profiles are best positioned to capture the full upside from this pivotal regulatory transition in Vietnam’s real estate market.
Story of the Week:
In 2026, Vietnam’s equity market is widely expected to be officially upgraded by FTSE Russell from Frontier Market to Secondary Emerging Market status. This represents a major milestone for the domestic financial market, though it is by no means the final destination. To retain this status and progressively converge toward higher international standards, the market must not only expand in scale but also continuously improve in quality. Within this context, the enhancement and professionalization of Investor Relations (IR) practices among listed companies play a particularly critical role in attracting international capital flows—especially from leading global financial institutions. Effective IR helps mitigate information asymmetry, thereby improving the efficiency of corporate valuation in the market. When a company succeeds in building long-term investor trust through transparency and a “fair-minded” approach to IR, its future cost of capital tends to decline materially. A broad body of empirical evidence from developed markets consistently shows that companies with high-quality IR practices typically experience lower short-term share price volatility, particularly during periods of severe systemic stress such as the Covid-19 crisis. Over the medium to long term, IR not only enhances firm value by reducing the cost of equity capital, but also facilitates capital-raising activities, directly supporting business performance. That said, in many emerging markets, the impact of IR remains muted, as numerous firms still view IR primarily as a compliance exercise rather than a strategic tool for cultivating long-term shareholder relationships.
An IPO often serves as the first real stress test of a company’s IR effectiveness, while simultaneously marking the beginning of an entirely new chapter for this function. Legendary investor Warren Buffett once observed: “An IPO is like a negotiated transaction – the seller chooses when to come public – and it’s unlikely to be a time that’s favourable to you,” underscoring the inherent disadvantage faced by IPO investors when issuers retain full discretion over timing. As such, IPO pricing becomes a revealing barometer of a company’s sense of fairness toward investors. In principle, IPO valuations should embed a certain discount to compensate for this structural imbalance. However, the phenomenon of illusory superiority has increasingly become a stumbling block, as many companies tend to treat industry or market averages as a “floor” rather than a reference point for IPO pricing. In reality, if every company believes it deserves to be valued above average, the very concept of an average ceases to exist. For firms with genuine confidence in their long-term growth narrative, starting from a below-average valuation and allowing the market to fully perform its price discovery function may be a more rational choice. Conversely, an excessive focus on maximizing valuation at the IPO stage may at times signal a lack of confidence on the part of management in their ability to further improve the company’s fundamentals over time.
In 2025, the VN-Index experienced three sharp drawdowns of over 100 points within relatively short periods. Examining the share price behavior of 12 companies that received the IR Awards 2025 in the category voted by financial institutions during these episodes yields a notable observation. Excluding the “black swan” sell-off triggered by U.S. tariff developments, the median price volatility of this group during the remaining two corrections was only about half of the broader market’s volatility. Specifically, during the correction from 17 October to 10 November, the VN-Index fell 10.79%, while the median decline among these 12 stocks was just 5.39%, with 10 out of 12 stocks outperforming the market. Similarly, during the 9–15 December period, when the VN-Index declined 7.11%, the median drop for this group was limited to 3.84%. While each stock and sector naturally follows its own cycle, companies with robust IR practices appear to demonstrate greater resilience to broad-based negative shocks. The benefits of IR may not be immediately visible in the short term, nor easily quantified with precision, but the long-term trust earned from the market is a form of capital whose value is never wasted.
II. Market Developments:
The VN-Index delivered a notably strong rebound last week following the sharp sell-off earlier, rising 3.49% to 1,704.31 points—the strongest weekly gain since mid-October and the fourth time the index has reclaimed the 1,700 level. The VN30 was the primary growth engine, advancing 3.55% to 1,933.28 points. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index also posted a solid recovery, up 1.55% to 253.97 points, whereas the UPCoM-Index edged up only 0.13% to 119.41 points, largely because it had not been under significant pressure during the prior correction. Average matched trading value on HOSE reached VND 17,276 billion, down 8.19% week-on-week. After a heavy net-selling streak, foreign investors returned to modest net buying of VND 240 billion, with selling pressure concentrated mainly in VIC and DGC. Proprietary trading desks also maintained mild net buying of VND 156 billion, more than halving from the previous week. Overall, the positive performance of the VN-Index was broadly in line with expectations following the unusually steep decline in the preceding week. The rally on Tuesday highlighted the market’s ability to absorb shares liquidated during the sharp sell-off on 12 December, thereby helping to alleviate the risk of a widespread forced deleveraging event. Sector leadership rotated constructively among Oil & Gas, Banking, and Securities, before shifting to Vingroup-related stocks in the final session of the week. Nevertheless, persistently declining liquidity remains a key headwind to the upward trend, particularly after the index has regained the 1,700 threshold. As seen in previous episodes, without a meaningful improvement in liquidity, the VN-Index is likely to lose momentum as it approaches the 1,750-point resistance zone. Despite net buying from both foreign and proprietary investors, the relatively modest scale of disbursements suggests that caution continues to dominate, with trading activity leaning more toward portfolio rebalancing rather than aggressive accumulation.
In terms of point contributions, the Vingroup complex was the dominant driver of market gains, led by VIC (+9.08 points), VHM (+7.19), and VPL (+4.19), alongside VPB (+3.68) and BSR (+3.05). On the downside, stocks exerting the largest negative impact included VCK (-2.03), DGC (-1.80), BCM (-0.97), VPX (-0.48), and HVN (-0.47), though their combined drag was relatively minor compared with the positive contributions. From a valuation perspective, the market P/E ratio rose to 15.06x, approximately 0.6x above the five-year average, and remains broadly reasonable given expectations that 4Q earnings of listed companies could grow by up to 20%. That said, amid tightening liquidity and a higher interest-rate environment compared with earlier periods, investors should recalibrate expectations for fair market and stock-specific P/E multiples to better reflect a higher cost of capital in the new regime.
III. Investment Perspective and Strategy from AWMFUND:
Our analytical framework identifies two clear short-term leading sectors, namely Oil & Gas and Real Estate. Meanwhile, on the medium-term horizon, the Insurance and Travel & Leisure sectors have recorded a notable recovery in relative price strength and have re-emerged as standout performers. Representative stocks include PVD, BSR, and PVS within Oil & Gas, and PWA, PIV, and VIC in Real Estate.
Last week, smart money was concentrated in nine stocks spanning multiple sectors. Proprietary trading and foreign investors continued to serve as the primary contributors, while proprietary trading maintained a cautious stance over recent weeks. The emergence of several stocks being consistently bought by all three smart money flows provides an initial indication of the quality underpinning last week’s market recovery.
Strategic Recommendations:
Over the past week, the sharp decline in overnight interbank rates indicates that the year-end liquidity stress is gradually easing, reflecting the central bank’s effective and predictable policy execution. This development helps reinforce confidence in the financial system and enhances the efficacy of forward guidance as a policy tool in the near term. From now until the Lunar New Year, credit demand is expected to fall significantly compared to the year-end peak, providing the State Bank of Vietnam with an opportunity to gradually withdraw liquidity through OMO operations, thereby restoring policy space for future interventions if necessary. However, the mismatch between deposit mobilization and lending will continue to pose a major challenge to the credit growth target for 2026. As of the end of November 2025, deposit growth reached only about 9.6–10.2%, while credit growth surged to 16.6%. Several banks have reported loan-to-deposit ratios exceeding 110%, including major institutions such as CTG (112.1%), VPB (153%), and MBB (118.2%). While the credit growth cap may represent the theoretical ceiling for the banking system’s income potential, deposit mobilization capacity constitutes a softer, practical constraint. Maintaining a high mismatch over an extended period may soon strain banks’ lending resources. More importantly, this imbalance may reflect the reality that economic growth and investment booms have yet to translate proportionately into household income, thereby increasing living cost pressures, reducing savings rates relative to disposable income, and raising medium- to long-term systemic risks while making growth less sustainable. In the coming week, as preliminary macro indicators for 2025 are released, investors should closely monitor metrics related to credit, consumption, and inflation to gain a more comprehensive macroeconomic picture.
On the equity market, last week’s recovery helped the index avoid the worst-case scenario due to tight margin pressures following a sharp short-term correction. Among the three conditions previously outlined for the market to reach the 1,800-point mark by year-end, the liquidity condition has not yet been met. As a result, even though a short-term upward move may have formed, current demand is unlikely to absorb all supply around the 1,750-point area. In the most optimistic scenario, the VN-Index needs to establish a sufficiently solid accumulation zone between 1,680–1,720 points to replace the 1,600–1,620 support range that had been effective since late August. This will serve as a critical foundation for the market to target higher milestones in 2026. Short-term capital is unlikely to return quickly to support the market, given that interbank liquidity has not fully normalized and the overall cost of capital has risen significantly.
For the upcoming week, investors are advised to raise equity allocation to around 70% of their portfolio, focusing on stocks expected to benefit from positive Q4 earnings momentum. If the market approaches 1,750 points without a corresponding improvement in liquidity, investors should consider reducing equity exposure to around 50%. Leverage may be cautiously applied within the 1,680–1,720 range with a balanced ratio. Furthermore, given the current increase in opportunity costs alongside elevated interest rates, investors should carefully evaluate the risk–return trade-off before using margin for medium- to long-term positions.
===
Explore Additional Investment Opportunities with AWMFUND:
To gain deeper insights and fully capitalize on market opportunities, explore AWMFUND’s specialized services:
Periodic Investment Publications (https://www.awmfund.vn/publication): Curated investment portfolios with real-time quarterly recommendations.
RS Rating – Comprehensive Trading
(https://www.awmfund.vn/rs-rating-service): A trading system that identifies top-performing stocks with strong price momentum.
Investment Consulting Services
(https://www.awmfund.vn/investment-consulting): Leveraging proprietary tools and the full suite of AWMFUND investment publications.
Portfolio Management Services
(https://www.awmfund.vn/investment-trust): Designed for busy investors seeking professional portfolio oversight.
DNSE Securities Collaborators
(https://www.awmfund.vn/recruitment): Unlimited income opportunities for motivated contributors.
High Margin Deal Services
(https://www.awmfund.vn/high-margin): Access high-leverage margin trading opportunities.
AWMFUND is committed to partnering with you on your investment journey.
= = =
Disclaimer: This report and its content are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investors should make decisions based on independent advice and their own financial situation. All views expressed may change without prior notice. Please credit the source when using information from this report.
= = =
AWMFUND Research
𝐀𝐖𝐌 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝 - Big bet on Vietnam's Future.
𝐓𝐞𝐥: 𝟎𝟖𝟖𝟖.𝟖𝟖.𝟕𝟕.𝟖𝟗
𝐌𝐚𝐢𝐥: 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐨@𝐚𝐰𝐦𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝.𝐯𝐧
Comments